Category: Five Thirty Eight

The Model Always Had Its Doubts About The Red Wave

In this installment of “Model Talk” on the FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast, Nate and Galen discuss a recently published assessment of how our 2022 midterm forecast performed. How did the polling averages and seat-gain projections compare with the actual results? If we said there was a 70 percent chance a candidate would win a race, did […]

In Defense Of The Mostly Pointless State Of The Union

The State of the Union is a little like New Year’s Eve. It’s an annual tradition that’s been practiced for more than a century. It can be a great moment to pause and consider the year to come. And if you expect it to be life-changing, you’re gonna have a bad time.  As we’ve documented […]

Politics Podcast: How Our 2022 Forecasts Actually Did

In this installment of “Model Talk” on the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, Nate and Galen discuss a recently published assessment of how our 2022 midterm forecast performed. How did the polling averages and seat-gain projections compare with the actual results? If we said there was a 70 percent chance a candidate would win a race, did […]

Americans Are Lonely. That Has Political Consequences.

Americans are spending more and more time alone, and more than a third reported experiencing “serious loneliness” in 2021. The director of the Harvard Study of Adult Development — the longest study of human life ever conducted — concluded in a new book that close personal relationships are the “one crucial factor [that] stands out […]

Politics Podcast: The Politics Of Loneliness

Americans are spending more and more time alone, and more than a third reported experiencing “serious loneliness” in 2021. The director of the Harvard Study of Adult Development — the longest study of human life ever conducted — concluded in a new book that close personal relationships are the “one crucial factor [that] stands out […]

How Our 2022 Midterm Forecasts Performed

Let’s get this out of the way up front: There was a wide gap between the perception of how well polls and data-driven forecasts did in 2022 and the reality of how they did … and the reality is that they did pretty well. While some polling firms badly missed the mark, in the aggregate […]