Russia’s invasion of Ukraine will have far more serious repercussions around the world than on U.S. domestic politics. We at FiveThirtyEight are experts on the latter, though, so here’s a look at how the conflict might affect President Biden’s political standing. (With war breaking out only this week, it’s too early to say anything for […]
Author: Nathaniel Rakich
We’ve Revamped Our Polling Tracker!
If there’s one thing you know about FiveThirtyEight, it’s that we love polls. But, contrary to popular belief, we don’t usually conduct polls ourselves — we just collect and analyze them. And all the polls we publish can be found in one place: our polling tracker, which we’ve just revamped in preparation for the 2022 […]
New York’s Gerrymander Might Change Which Party Picks Up Seats In The Midterms
Senior elections analyst Nathaniel Rakich breaks down how New York state was able to pass its Democratically gerrymandered congressional map and what it could mean for the 2022 midterm race. Nathaniel Rakich: New Yorkers like to think they’re really important; I mean, come on, their state nickname is “the Empire State.” But, I will admit, […]
Most Primary Polls So Far Are Internal Polls. That’s A Problem.
Welcome to Pollapalooza, our weekly polling roundup. Interested in who’s going to win the Republican primary for U.S. Senate in Ohio in a few months? Well, we’ve got good news and bad news for you. The good news is that there are already 22 polls of the race! But the bad news is that 21 […]
How A Court Ruling In Alabama Could Boost Black Political Power Throughout The South
On Jan. 24, Alabama became the second state (after Ohio) to have its new congressional map struck down in court. But while Ohio’s map was thrown out by the state Supreme Court for violating the state constitution, Alabama’s was overturned by three federal judges who determined the map short-changed Black voters of representation in Congress. […]
New York’s Proposed Congressional Map Is Heavily Biased Toward Democrats. Will It Pass?
One of the biggest takeaways from the congressional redistricting process thus far has been that neither party has made major gains. But the congressional map that New York legislators just introduced is so skewed toward Democrats that it could single-handedly change that. New York is, of course, a blue state; it gave President Biden 61 […]
36 States Are Electing Governors This Year. Here Are The Races To Watch.
Coverage of the 2022 midterm elections has tended to focus on control of Congress — but control of state governments will be on the ballot too. In fact, with policymaking in Washington at a standstill, state-level elections may well have the bigger impact on Americans’ daily lives. And the biggest prize on the state level, […]
Why Joe Manchin And Kyrsten Sinema Will Probably Vote For Biden’s Supreme Court Pick
With Wednesday’s news that Justice Stephen Breyer will retire from the Supreme Court at the end of its current term, Democrats have avoided their worst-case scenario for the nation’s highest court: that Republicans would take control of the Senate before Breyer retired, allowing Sen. Mitch McConnell to keep Breyer’s seat open to eventually replace the […]
Did Redistricting Commissions Live Up To Their Promise?
New Jersey. Arizona. California. Michigan. While the rest of us were enjoying roast beast and champagne during the last couple weeks of December, members of independent and bipartisan redistricting commissions in those states were completing the work of drawing new congressional lines. In fact, by Tuesday of this week (when New York’s advisory redistricting commission […]
The Countless, Confusing, Sometimes Contradictory Takeaways Of The 2021-22 Redistricting Cycle
Many analyses of congressional redistricting so far have tried to sum the situation up into a single sentence. While we understand the urge, it’s increasingly the case that there is no one takeaway from the 2021-22 redistricting cycle. In reality, the picture is complicated: Democrats have gained seats based on partisanship alone … but Republicans […]