Author: Nathaniel Rakich

We’ve Revamped Our Polling Tracker!

If there’s one thing you know about FiveThirtyEight, it’s that we love polls. But, contrary to popular belief, we don’t usually conduct polls ourselves — we just collect and analyze them. And all the polls we publish can be found in one place: our polling tracker, which we’ve just revamped in preparation for the 2022 […]

Why Joe Manchin And Kyrsten Sinema Will Probably Vote For Biden’s Supreme Court Pick

With Wednesday’s news that Justice Stephen Breyer will retire from the Supreme Court at the end of its current term, Democrats have avoided their worst-case scenario for the nation’s highest court: that Republicans would take control of the Senate before Breyer retired, allowing Sen. Mitch McConnell to keep Breyer’s seat open to eventually replace the […]

Did Redistricting Commissions Live Up To Their Promise?

New Jersey. Arizona. California. Michigan. While the rest of us were enjoying roast beast and champagne during the last couple weeks of December, members of independent and bipartisan redistricting commissions in those states were completing the work of drawing new congressional lines. In fact, by Tuesday of this week (when New York’s advisory redistricting commission […]

The Countless, Confusing, Sometimes Contradictory Takeaways Of The 2021-22 Redistricting Cycle

Many analyses of congressional redistricting so far have tried to sum the situation up into a single sentence. While we understand the urge, it’s increasingly the case that there is no one takeaway from the 2021-22 redistricting cycle. In reality, the picture is complicated: Democrats have gained seats based on partisanship alone … but Republicans […]