It feels like November in Wisconsin — and not just because of the weather. TV watchers in the Badger State are again being badgered by political ads. Of course, there’s no presidential, Senate or House race happening soon. Instead, all that advertising is for persuading voters in a state judicial election. According to the website […]
Author: Nathaniel Rakich
Polls Aren’t Dead. Here Are The Pollsters To Trust.
Transcript Nathaniel Rakich: The death of polling has been greatly exaggerated. After the 2016 and 2020 elections, when the polls had a rough year, a lot of people wanted to leave them for dead. But in 2022, polls had one of their most accurate election cycles in recent history. But not all polls are created […]
The Polls Nailed The 2022 Election
Let’s give a big round of applause to the pollsters. Measuring public opinion is, in many ways, harder than ever — and yet, the polling industry just had one of its most successful election cycles in U.S. history. Despite a loud chorus of naysayers claiming that the polls were either underestimating Democratic support or biased […]
How Our Pollster Ratings Work
The Details Longtime readers of FiveThirtyEight are probably familiar with our pollster ratings: letter grades that we assign to pollsters based on their historical accuracy and transparency. Since 2008, we have been evaluating pollsters and using these ratings to inform both the public and our models about the quality of individual polls. Over the years, […]
Democrats Are Open To Ditching Biden In 2024
Donald Trump this, Ron DeSantis that. The race for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination has been getting all the attention lately. But at least one person is trying to make fetch (and history) happen on the Democratic side. Last weekend, self-help author, motivational speaker and 2020 presidential candidate Marianne Williamson announced she was running for […]
Democrats Did Well In Elections In February
It may be an odd year, but there are still elections happening — and the first notable election of 2023 took place last Tuesday, with contests in Virginia, Wisconsin and a couple of other states. The results left Democrats and liberals cheering; their preferred candidates not only won, but by larger-than-expected margins. However, Democrats shouldn’t […]
Why We’re Preemptively Banning A Pollster — And Not Banning Another
FiveThirtyEight is in the business of grading and reporting on polls — so when a pollster allegedly engages in misconduct, we take it seriously. In November 2022, an anonymous interviewee in The Tartan, Carnegie Mellon University’s student-run newspaper, alleged that Sean McElwee, the then-executive director of polling firm Data For Progress, was betting on elections. […]
Why Democrats Are Worried About 2024 Senate Elections
Transcript The next election is still two years away, but if you asked me today who will win the Senate in 2024, I would say Republicans. Why? It doesn’t have anything to do with the polls, or the candidates, or the economy. It’s because the 2024 Senate map is just really bad for Democrats. Bad […]
Biden’s Cabinet Members Seem To Really Like Their Jobs
Being a member of the presidential Cabinet can be a high-stress job, no matter who is sitting in the Oval Office. So it makes sense that just over two years into President Biden’s administration, some of his initial appointees are heading for the exits. Last Tuesday, it was reported that Secretary of Labor Marty Walsh […]
What’s The Deal With Political Trifectas?
Transcript Nathaniel Rakich: In November 2022, Democrats in four states achieved trifectas. No, they didn’t get lucky down at the track — although they did win a horse race of a different sort: They won the three elections that determine control of state government. And this kind of trifecta is even more valuable than a […]