Author: Nathaniel Rakich

Liz Cheney And Lisa Murkowski Could Lose To Election Deniers

Two establishment Republicans who stood up to former President Donald Trump’s false claims of election fraud are facing the voters on Aug. 16. Can they beat their Trump-backed opponents? Transcript Nathaniel Rakich: Two of the most high-profile Republicans who have stood up to former President Donald Trump’s false claims of election fraud are facing the […]

Everything You Need To Know About Hawaii’s Primary

Hawaii hasn’t elected a Republican to federal or statewide office since 2010 and hasn’t had a competitive general election for those offices since 2014. According to our 2022 midterm election forecast, that won’t change this year either: Democrats have a greater than 99 in 100 chance to win the Senate race, governor’s mansion and both […]

3 Republican Primaries — And A Special Election — To Watch In Minnesota And Wisconsin

In summertime, I like to head north to beat the heat — and that’s exactly what we’re doing with Tuesday’s elections. The upper-latitude states of Connecticut, Minnesota, Vermont and Wisconsin are all holding their primaries on Tuesday, and Minnesota — the nation’s north star — is also hosting a special election that could provide clues […]

The 2022 Congressional Baseball Game Is A Toss-Up

Think your office softball league is serious? Try the Congressional Baseball Game. Most summers since 1909, Democratic and Republican members of Congress have taken a break from legislating to play a friendly game of the national pastime, and through many ups and downs, it has slowly evolved into a huge event. Last year’s game, played […]

Why Democrats’ Midterm Chances Don’t Hinge On Biden’s Approval Rating

Earlier this month, FiveThirtyEight editor-in-chief Nate Silver noted an interesting disconnect between two pieces of information most commonly used to predict the upcoming midterms: the president’s approval rating and polls of the generic congressional ballot (which ask Americans whether they plan to vote for the Republican or the Democratic candidate this fall). On one hand, […]

At Least 120 Republicans Who Deny The 2020 Election Results Will Be On The Ballot In November

Since the 2020 election, millions of Republican voters have accepted former President Donald Trump’s false claim that the presidential election was stolen from him. And now, here in 2022, many Republican politicians have capitalized on this lie and have won elections of their own. This election cycle, FiveThirtyEight is tracking the views of every Republican […]

Ron DeSantis Drew Florida An Extreme Gerrymander

Senior elections analyst Nathaniel Rakich breaks down how Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis pushed through his gerrymandered map of Florida. TRANSCRIPT The Everglades in Florida is home to all kinds of rare and dangerous species. The American alligator. The boa constrictor. And the deadliest creature of them all: the gerrymander! When Florida started the process of […]

Where The Midterms Could Most Affect Abortion Access

On Friday, the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, leaving it up to individual states to decide whether abortion is legal within their borders. As of 5 p.m. Eastern on Tuesday, nine states have already banned or restricted the procedure, and by the end of July, at least another six will have joined them. But […]