Four years ago, the Democratic presidential primary was dominated by a concept nobody could clearly define but everyone could tell you was important: “electability.” Despite the challenges of measuring this amorphous trait, perceptions about who would have the best chance of winning the general election tended to boost older white male candidates at the expense […]
Author: Geoffrey Skelley
Mike Pence Is Starting His Presidential Campaign From A Historically Bad Position
The American vice presidency, according to one of its former officeholders, is “not worth a bucket of warm spit.” But for a worthless office, the vice presidency has certainly produced a lot of presidents: Though John Nance Garner, the former VP credited with the colorful aphorism never reached the White House, a number of his […]
Why Some Republican Candidates Might Not Make The Debate Stage
Whether they’re generating news coverage or raising money (or, in recent years, eyebrows), debates are a critical part of the presidential primary calendar. A great performance can help a lesser-known candidate gain ground in the polls and expand their fundraising reach, while a poor showing can mark the beginning of the end — or the […]
Everything You Need To Know About Ron DeSantis
Transcript Kaleigh Rogers: Florida Governor Ron DeSantis just announced he’s running for president. He’s probably former President Donald Trump’s most significant opponent for the Republican Party nomination. Now that he’s officially announced, I spoke to FiveThirtyEight senior elections analyst Geoffrey Skelley to find out more about the campaign and whether or not he actually has […]
The Rise, Fall And Potential Resurrection Of Ron DeSantis
After signaling a campaign for months — even years — Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis formally announced on Wednesday that he’s running for president. As a result, the two leading Republican candidates in the primary polls, former President Donald Trump and DeSantis, are now both officially in the race. In the leadup to his announcement, DeSantis’s […]
Florida Started A Race To Reshape Conservatism. Now It Has Some Catching Up To Do.
The vanguard of American conservatism is Florida — at least, according to its governor. The state is on “the front lines in the battle for freedom,” Gov. Ron DeSantis said to the Florida legislature in March, telling lawmakers that “we have the opportunity and indeed the responsibility to swing for the fences so that we […]
A Sex Scandal Tanked A Presidential Front-Runner In The 1980s. Why Not Today?
It’s spring of the year before the presidential primaries, and an unprecedented scandal involving a clear front-runner in the polls has caused a media firestorm and wall-to-wall coverage. No, we’re not talking about former President Donald Trump, who was arraigned last week on criminal charges stemming from a hush-money payment he allegedly made related to […]
Why Are There So Many Boomers In Congress?
Transcript Geoffrey Skelley: Congress is old. In fact, it’s gotten steadily older over the past few decades. In 1981, the median age was about 49 for a representative and about 52 for a senator. In 2023, those numbers are 58 and 65! And this has major implications for the issues the legislature cares about. So, […]
Congress Today Is Older Than It’s Ever Been
Older members of Congress are notorious for their lack of familiarity with modern technology. Late last month, at least three different representatives in a hearing on TikTok called the popular app “Tic Tac,” a breath mint available in many store checkout lines. This is only the latest in a long line of amusing tech-related congressional […]
What You Need To Know About The Wisconsin And Chicago Elections
Although there are some other newsworthy events taking place that day, Tuesday is also Election Day — at least in a few states. There are two high-profile contests: In Wisconsin, a critical race for state Supreme Court will decide if liberals or conservatives will have the judicial upper hand, and in Chicago, the city will […]