Author: FiveThirtyEight

Politics Podcast: Has The Threat To Democracy Receded?

In the run up to the 2022 election, FiveThirtyEight tracked what every single Republican nominee for House, Senate, governor, secretary of state and attorney general said about the legitimacy of the 2020 election. Thirty-five percent fully rejected Biden’s win and another 10 percent cast doubt on it. In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, […]

Politics Podcast: Where The Georgia Runoff Stands

Election Day in Georgia is just a week away, so the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast crew shook off their turkey hangover to talk about what to expect in Georgia’s second Senate runoff in two years. They also review Democrats’ agenda for the current lame duck session in Congress and hold their first post-midterm 2024 Democratic primary […]

Politics Podcast: How The ’90s Shaped Today’s GOP

In the popular understanding of American history, President Ronald Reagan’s tenure in office marked the beginning of a new era for the Republican Party and American politics. His presidency served as a blueprint for subsequent GOP politicians and even helped inspire a tack to the center amongst the New Democrats. But in “Partisans: The Conservative […]

How A Data Processing Error Changed Our Deluxe Forecast

Soon after the midterm elections, we began our regular process of evaluating how FiveThirtyEight’s forecasts performed. We quickly discovered an error: We were using out-of-date data for one important source used in the Deluxe version of our forecast. Although this had little impact on the topline numbers for each party’s chance of controlling a chamber […]

Emergency Podcast: Will Trump Win The GOP Nomination?

On Tuesday night, former President Donald Trump announced his plans to run for president in 2024. And while he has kept a tight grip on the GOP since 2016, his support is no longer unanimous, especially among party elites. In this emergency installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss how […]

Politics Podcast: Why Democrats Beat Historical Trends In 2022

This weekend, Nevada’s Senate race was projected for Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto, ensuring Democrats will keep their majority in the chamber. In this installment of “Model Talk” on the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss how the Senate outcome impacts the upcoming Georgia Senate runoff and the projections for key U.S. House […]

Politics Podcast: The Red Wave Didn’t Happen

In this late-night installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, Nate Silver and Galen Druke put their “Model Talk” hats on and discuss the initial results from the 2022 midterms. As of this writing, we still don’t know which party will control the House or Senate, and we may not know come the morning. But that […]